Before pulling comps, document your subject property's key characteristics: square footage, bedroom and bathroom count, lot size, year built, garage or parking, and the finished condition you are projecting. Your comps need to match these characteristics as closely as possible. Comparing a 1,400 sqft 3BR/2BA to a 2,100 sqft 4BR/3BA produces a meaningless ARV.
Target comps that sold in the last 90 days (120 days maximum in slow markets), within half a mile (1 mile maximum in rural or low-density areas), with similar square footage (within 20%), and similar bedroom and bathroom count. You want at minimum 3 comps — ideally 5–6. Use the MLS, Zillow sold data, Redfin, or Rentcast for access to recent sales data.
No two properties are identical. Make adjustments for meaningful differences: square footage (typically $50–$150/sqft difference depending on market), bathrooms (typically $10k–$20k per extra bath), garage (typically $15k–$25k), finished basement (varies widely), and condition (a fully renovated comp vs your projected renovation level). Adjust each comp up or down to reflect what it would have sold for if it matched your subject property exactly.
Average your adjusted comp values, then apply judgment. Weight recent sales and geographically close comps more heavily. If your comps cluster tightly (within 5–8% of each other), the midpoint is your ARV. If comps are widely dispersed, investigate why — there may be a neighborhood quality factor or condition issue you are missing. Use the conservative end of your range when your confidence is lower.
Dan White is a licensed Virginia real estate agent at Pearson Smith Realty and founder of FreeDealCalc.com. He has been investing in Northern Virginia real estate for 20+ years.